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Colombo: Annihilated by India in their second Super Eight match, an inconsistent Pakistan are faced with a do-or-die situation and need nothing less than a big win when they take on a rampaging Australia in the World Twenty20 on Tuesday.
Pakistan will have to pick up the pieces from their all-round failure against the arch-rivals and come up with an inspired performance against the unbeaten Australian side, which has been almost assured a semifinal berth with a commanding eight-wicket victory over South Africa in their last game yesterday.
Aware that one more defeat will ensure their exit from the tournament if India manage to beat South Africa later in the evening tomorrow, Pakistan, after a win and a loss, have to clinch it against Australia to have any chance of making the semifinals.
The fight for the second semi-final slot from Group 1 is indeed intriguingly poised as both India and Pakistan have a fair chance of making the cut with the Aussies enjoying a healthy run-rate of +1.712.
In case Pakistan (-0.426), who are shade ahead of India (-0.452) in terms of net run-rate happen to win against Australia, Mahendra Singh Dhoni and his men will then have to win comprehensively against the South Africans in order to make it to the last four.
Pakistan, on the other hand, would have to regroup their resources after being shot out for a meagre 128 against India. Their bowlers also came a cropper, thrashed by the Virat Kohli-inspired Indian batting line-up.
Australia are the in-form side of the tournament with the top-order batsmen in roaring form and the frontline bowlers among the wickets.
The main worry for Pakistan would be swashbuckling Australian openers Shane Watson and David Warner, who have become the most successful pair in the T20 Internationals.
Yesterday against South Africa, Watson single-handedly guided the team to victory with a brutal 47-ball 70 and 2/29 while bowling.
Such has been the terror of the marauding all-rounder that Pakistan coach Dav Whatmore joked that his team will either have to poison Watson's food or hope that he has a bad day in office against them.
Watson has so far collected four man of the match trophies and has scored 234 runs in the tournament. His bowling has also fetched him with 10 wickets.
Veteran Mike Hussey has also done his bit at one down and came good against the Proteas with a 37-ball 45.
Though fast bowlers, Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc, went wicketless in the last game but produced pace and bounce on a slowish Premadasa strip against the Indians.
Left-arm spinner Xavier Doherty picked up three wickets for 20 runs in his economical spell against the South Africans. Brad Hogg has also taken two wickets from the three matches he has played so far and without being expensive. Both can be handful if the pitch assists slow bowlers.
If there is any cause of worry for the Australians, it could be their middle order batsmen as they have not been tested in the tournament.
On the other hand, Pakistan looked completely out of sorts against India. On their day, the likes of Imran Nazir, Nasir Jamshed and Mohammad Hafeez can take any bowling side to the cleaners but they wilted under pressure against India.
Pakistan's front-line bowlers, Gul, Saeed Ajmal, Shahid Afridi and Yasir Arafat, also failed to make any impression against a solid Indian line-up.
Another problem for Pakistan has been Afridi's sharp dip in form with the willow. A lot will also depend on Pakistan's most talented young batsman Umar Akmal who on his day can take apart any bowling attack in the world.
A complete semi-final Scenario
Australia
With two huge wins in as many matches, Australia are the best-placed team in the tournament. For them to go out, both Pakistan and India will have to win their matches by around 40 runs (if they bat first and score 160).
Pakistan
Pakistan's defeat to India - and the margin of that loss - has put their semi-final hopes in danger. Their NRR has dropped to -0.426, which is only marginally better than those of India and South Africa. If Pakistan lose to Australia, an Indian win will knock them out without NRR playing any part. Even if South Africa beat India in this scenario, Pakistan's chances remain bleak: if they lose their match by five runs (chasing 161), and if South Africa score 160 and beat India by the same margin, then Pakistan's NRR will be poorer than South Africa's.
Pakistan's passage is not straightforward even if they beat Australia. Even after winning, they'll have to hope that India don't beat South Africa by a bigger margin and sneak past them. If, for example, both Pakistan and India score 160 and win their last matches by ten runs, then Pakistan's NRR will be marginally lower than India's.
Teams from
Pakistan: Mohammad Hafeez (captain), Imran Nazir, Kamran Akmal (wk), Shahid Afridi, Shoaib Malik, Nasir Jamshed, Saeed Ajmal, Sohail Tanvir, Umar Akmal, Umar Gul, Yasir Arafat, Abdul Razzaq, Mohammad Sami, Asad Shafiq, Raza Hasan.
Australia: George Bailey (captain), Dan Christian, Pat Cummins, Xavier Doherty, Ben Hilfenhaus, Brad Hogg, David Hussey, Michael Hussey, Glenn Maxwell, Clint McKay, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade (wk), David Warner, Shane Watson, Cameron White.
Match facts
Tuesday October 2, 2012 (day/night)
Start time 15:30 local (1000 GMT, 3pm PST)
